Thinking of that lady copper who annoyed me the other day, leaving the EU will mean if push absolutely came to shove if people try to get me to move out of my house I can't appeal it under my human rights as a last resort. Still it hasn't got to that stage yet.  One of the ladies from the Spanish class (where I've been today) said don't pooh-pooh social workers if they get in touch because she knows someone who found the local council acted as a portal for other things.

I do have this less powerful laptop but the theft has meant I've spent less time on the internet (which can prove addictive - to me at least).  Perhaps that is one good thing that has come out of a very bad matter.

I'm still rather miffed about the condescending attitude of the police (the community ones, well the one who did all the talking, though she probably does mean well but some folk can overdo the "do-gooding") - the police woman said they could have a doctor assess my mental health.  I believe I am compos mentis.

Yesterday my husband said he had a treat for me planned. I like surprises so I didn't ask what it was. It turned out to be a visit to the Dunedin Town Hall to see an event of the Masters Games held here every second year. My event was the dancing competition -  I love watching dancing and one of my favourite memories is of watching the dancing at the Blackpool Tower room - it was just lovely. I spent three hours there while my husband went to the top of the tower. I hope it is still going.

I think the ballroom cited is still going strong, Caro, but I'll ask around people who have more to do with dancing than I. One of the ladies from the Spanish class I attend does Scottish Country Dancing - something like the Thistledown Dancers; it is a group for older people as it's a U3A group.  I think if I tried anything like I would be more like a thistle treading on peoples' toes so I haven't attended that group.  I did used to go to a keep-fit group for retired and semi-retired people until the teacher hurt her leg and discontinued the class.

Some police came out tonight - apparently one of the other neighbours called them because they had seen someone in nextdoor's garden again - they may have forced the door again.  Anyway the police called out and said they had tried my French window door and it was open.  I though it was locked - I can only assume I had thought I'd turned the key to lock it and I'd turned it the wrong way the last time I turned the key.  I don't think anyone would have been upstairs to get the key which I keep in a drawer upstairs so it must have been me not locking it properly.  I feel a clot - I imagine that is how the oiks got in last time but I don't think they came in tonight.  Nothing is missing as far as I can tell.  Of course although I was working upstairs the light was on in my bedroom where I was working.  The windows I had replaced last year including the French window are well locked now.  I'll try and get some window locks from Wickes or somewhere like that for the old windows.  The house nextdoor being empty doesn't help.  Someone over the road was wondering if it was squatters.

If Caro reads this I've tried to link to the site of the Blackpool Tower Ballroom but it may have truncated - when that happens a site seems to default to the home page of the website.https://support.theblackpooltower.com/hc/en-us/articles/115002725951-When-is-The-Blackpool-Tower-Ballroom-open-

Thank you, LIR. I could open that. It had the times it was open and closed; I don't know if there was anything else to see. But I could always go to google and see for myself.

It looks as though people do still dance at Blackpool Tower Ballroom  https://www.visitlancashire.com/things-to-do/the-blackpool-tower-ballroom-p625780

I looked to see if the Strictly Come Dancing* Tour went to the Blackpool Tower Ballroom on its travels but it seems that the Blackpool leg of the tour takes place at the Blackpool Opera House.

To things more serious, Ireland (i.e. Eire, the Republic) will be having an election this weekend.  Despite being of part-Irish descent I don't know much about the candidates.  I suppose it has possibly been overshadowed in the UK news by the B word.

* You probably all know this but just in case not "Strictly come Dancing" is the British version of "Dancing with the Stars".

How are my fellow Res Historians who live in the UK managing with Storm Ciara?  I was going to go to a mass in Polish at about 12.15 but I realised I wasn't going to get there in time (I had a last minute worry that the cat had got out - I've been told to keep her inside for the first fortnight I have her) so just went to the local Co-op shop.  I had my trolley with me (the one I use for taking laundry to the launderette/"whirly wash").  On the way home Storm Ciara unleashed her best (or worst?) efforts - there were some puddles at the side of the road near the gutter, big ones, and the cars drove straight through them, not making any effort to avoid splashing pedestrians.  I felt one splash and realised I was soaked through my coat right down to my shoes and socks.  I'm home now and have changed my togs - there is a mass this evening but if the weather is still foul I'm not going.  Common sense has to prevail.  There's no sense in making myself ill to live by the letter of the law.  I never got around to replacing my old cagoul and waterproof trousers when they went to the great hiking ground in the sky so I shall have to call in Millett's or somewhere like that to get some waterproof togs.  There is a stall in the local market sells footwear including wellingtons* which are not too expensive.

* Rubber boots to wear in wet weather.

LiR, some hour ago driving home a large branch on the way, some 4 inches "dik" (thick? in this context?). If that had bounced on my car...the UK you said from storm Ciara...we are not that far from Dover, which is the nearest to us...as a crow flies they translate "in vogelvlucht" (in bird's flight)...but distance as a crow flies I didn't find...then found it with "shortest distance"...what do you say in English then for bird's flight?

Very interesting map as the 12 miles? zones are indicated...for instance the whole Ionian Sea is belonging to Greece...
https://www.distance.to/Ostend/Dover
At least I found some 80 miles from here to Dover...

Kind regards from Paul.

Sounds like you had a close shave with the branch, Paul.  Part of Australia has been having wild weather also.  

Deleted - double post.

Thanks LiR for the reply, but btw: what do you say for the shortest distance between two towns? We say in "vogelvlucht" (bird's fly) they translate as "as a crow flies", but with that I didn't find a shortest distance...

Kind regards from Paul.

You were correct with "as the crow flies", Paul.  In English in this context we refer to the crow and not to birds in general.  I don't know why it was the crow and not the pigeon, or the eagle or any other fowl of the air but the crow it is.

Lir,

 why the crow and not the pigeon.....


It seems the origin of  "as the crow flies" :


https://www.theidioms.com/as-the-crow-flies/


But how the sailors knew that the crow found land is a big question?

 Did the crow come back to the ship?



Are we back to myths?




Dirk

The idea that ships routinely kept cages of crows as a navigational aid seems ludicrous to me, nevertheless there may still be a nautical origin for 'as the crow flies'. On sailing ships the platform high up on the mast where the lookout was installed - and could therefore see 'over the horizon' - was called the crow's nest. But might the original figurative association actually be with a raven rather than a crow; it being a raven that Noah sent out from the Ark before the dove on the first attempt to find any dry land.

There's a similar expression in French, à vol d'oiseau, literally by bird flight, and there's also the English expression 'beeline', as in to make a beeline for a destination etc, again denoting the straight/direct path that only flying creatures, being independent of the vagaries of the terrain, can truely make. Though I'm not sure that either bees or crows are particulalry noted for flying in straight lines.

Meles meles wrote:

The idea that ships routinely kept cages of crows as a navigational aid seems ludicrous to me, nevertheless there may still be a nautical origin for 'as the crow flies'. On sailing ships the platform high up on the mast where the lookout was installed - and could therefore see 'over the horizon' - was called the crow's nest. But might the original figurative association actually be with a raven rather than a crow; it being a raven that Noah sent out from the Ark before the dove on the first attempt to find any dry land.

 
MM, I did a bit of research on the internet and found only something reasonable about the term crow's nest (kraaiennest, nid-de-pie) in a Dutch language article of the "Flemish institute of the sea"
http://www.vliz.be/hisgiskust/sites/vliz.be.hisgiskust/files/public/documenten/Lodewijkbank.pdf

The word comes up only from the 19th century on, problably first in Britain and from there derived in Dutch and in French.
It seems that crow's make their nests on top of the highest tree in a wood...

Before the place was called in Dutch "de mars"

"Vóór het woord kraaiennest in gebruik kwam, heette de bewuste uitkijkpost in onze taal mars, een woord dat oorspronkelijk een mand of korf aanduidde, bepaaldelijk een op de rug gedragen korf waarin rondtrekkende venters hun waren vervoerden."

Before the use of crow's nest, the word in use was "mars", originally it meant a basket, especially a basket on the back of itinerant pedlars.

"Het woord, dat in het oudere Nederlands ook voorkomt onder de gedaanten maars(e), mers(e) en meers(e), stamt uit Latijn merces, dat ‘koopwaar’ betekende en ook aan de basis ligt van Nederlands en Duits markt, Engels market en Frans marché, marchand en marchandise. Het woord meers/mars is bewaard in het verouderde woord marskramer voor een rondreizend handelaar en ook in familienamen als (De) Meersman en Marsman "

mars, maars from Latin "merces" merchandise...related to market, markt, marché...marskramer (intinerant pedlar)...

MM, what was the term in English before the crow's nest was introduced in the 19th century?

Kind regards, Paul.

The older term was a 'top', as in a fore-top, main-top, mizzen-top etc (ie specifying the masts where they were located) and these were not just lookout points but also served as 'fighting tops', ie containing archers or armed with light guns to fire down onto an enemy ship's deck (it was a sharp-shooter located on the mizzentop of La Redoubtable that killed Nelson). While ships were still mostly sail driven, the tops were usually more basket-shaped or even just as a flat platform, rather than being a high-sided barrel-shape. For example note the shape of the tops on Francis Drake's sixteenth-century ship 'Golden Hinde' - this is a modern reconstruction but I think it was built from copies of original drawings: 



Wikimisleadia (with no citation quoted) says of the term crow's nest:
"In the early 19th century, it was simply a barrel or a basket lashed to the tallest mast. Later, it became a specially designed platform with protective railing. The barrel crow's nest was invented in 1807 by the Arctic explorer William Scoresby Sr. A statue in Whitby, North Yorkshire commemorates the event." (My emphasis).

But I think that is a very misleading statement as ships have had purpose-built, railed platforms, constructed as an integral part of their masts - albeit called a top not a crow's nest - from well before the nineteenth century. I rather see William Scoresby's 'innovation' of strapping deep barrels to his masts as an emergency measure, taken to give his look-outs better protection against the extreme Arctic cold that he was experiencing but had singularly failed to prepare for. 

In addition to the above picture of the Golden Hinde, just look at for example the contemporary depiction of Henry VIII's ship 'Mary Rose', as it was recorded in the Anthony Roll of about 1540, and which shows railed structures completely encircling the masts, ie not just strapped to them.

   

... or indeed from earlier there's this depiction of the Battle of Sluys (1340) from Jean Froissart's fifteenth-century chronicle, which clearly shows ships with substantial tops on their masts, each one capable of containing several archers:



Incidentally the nest of a crow typically more resembles a flat platform or the sort of shallow basket shape depicted on the Mary Rose, rather than a deep barrel shape:

Thank you very much MM for your explanations, which clarifies the English word.

Kind regards from Paul.

I hope this is an appropriate thread.  Maybe it's because I've only been watching news headlines for a time (because of the B word) but I had not realised that Dippy the Diplodocus from the Natural History Museum in London was on tour, having opened at Rochdale Library yesterday.  www.rochdale.gov.uk/events-and-activities/events/Pages/the-dippy-experience.aspx  Of course, strictly speaking, Dippy is not a dinosaur but a replica https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/diplodocus-this-is-your-life.html

Thanks for the information about the 'tops' or 'crows' nests' on sailing ships, MM.  I'd never really taken the 'baskets' for archers - or marksmen when guns came into their own - as being part of the fighting equipment.  In fact, in some cases I may not even have committed the 'baskets' to memory.

In English speech I have also come across "the shortest line from A to B" to mean - well what it literally says - but that is more prosaic than the 'beeline' or 'as the crow flies'.

I don't know if this site is getting to me but there was a banner advert at the top of the site (for me) today.  It was advertising computer games.  I read an offer for 'a month's free' as 'myths free'!  As I say this laptop isn't powerful and to download AdBlock or any other ad prevention software would probably slow it down further.

Posting this here though maybe it could fit in the moggy thread. I'm going to have to re-do the cat flap as when pushing it open from the inside it is sticking against the main door into which it has been inserted.  My fitting of it is very Heath-Robinson.  Was I really so silly that I only tested the flap opening from the outside in (which isn't a problem) and not from the inside out - well seemingly I was.  Readjusting it probably WON'T figure in today's daily diary for me because I'm suffering from the intermittent lower back pain I sometimes get (which was why at one time I was entertaining the notion of a corset).  The pain can impinge on my efficacy at some household chores.  I attempted to introduce Tilly to the cat flap today - she obviously has used one before, but as I say when I unlocked it, it stuck when I tried to open it from inside to out.  It probably only needs to be moved over a centimetre or so but it's a nuisance.

How quiet the board is at present.  I went to get a few provisions at the local Co-Op shop and saw that there were notices saying that the handwash bottles were limited to two per purchase. I suppose that is because of the coronavirus scare.  What can we do?  Just try to act sensibly I guess.  At present I have sufficient soap so should be able to wash my hands okay.

Thinking of coronavirus, someone was saying that "rubbing alcohol" has taken a steep upward hike in price because people are buying it as an ingredient to make a home-made version of hand sanitiser.  (Is "rubbing alcohol" surgical spirit?).  There is something questionable about folk trying to make money out of a health scare.  I'll have to be careful because (a) I'm a senior citizen and (b) I have high blood pressure (albeit that is kept in check with tablets).  At least two of my old lady woes - coeliac disease and hay fever are said to be due to an impaired immune system.  I read something to the effect that the casualties of coronavirus in the UK have tended to be people with less than 100% efficient immune systems.  One of the doctors at the GP surgery told me some time back to eat fresh fruit and well, to eat a sensible balanced diet generally, to try and boost my immune system.  I do try to do that.

I've been a naughty girl quite unintentionally.  I had been putting some fat balls for the garden birds on top of the shed so that I wouldn't make them sitting ducks for my cat (or any other cats in the neighbourhood) and my neighbour popped his head over the fence and said (not nastily) would I mind not putting them there because the birds have been rolling them off into his garden and the dogs have been eating them and got attacks of the collywobbles.  I don't mind complying with his wish because I don't want to make the dogs ill - I'm just surprised that the birds have rolled them that way because the shed has a slanted roof which slopes towards my garden rather than nextdoor's (the shed is pretty close to the fence).  I've seen a grey squirrel in the garden sometimes (it used to be two but more recently I've just seen one) so it might be the squirrel I suppose.  Editing to explain it might have been the squirrel dropping the fat balls in nextdoor's garden.

Come to think of it the grey squirrels (where I live anyway) haven't hibernated this year but then it has been a mild winter here (thus far - there's still time for it to turn nippy) albeit a wet one.

LiR, we had a good vacation at Tenerife. The two grandchildren came over for some days, as their mother and the partner for a week to celebrate his anniversary on the island. But at the end on last Sunday, our normal day to leave, there was a lot of turmoil on the airport, while Sunday morning the police drove around with loudspeakers telling in English that all public locations were closed. I had no internet via the I pad, as the wifi at the hotel didn't function, even after the assistance of the hotel personel. So I had to look in the hotelroom to BBC world on TV or to the German ZDF. Perhaps some who had access to internet, had already anticipated and wanted to return immediately at home. Hence the turmoil on the airport, as the flights to leave the island had I guess doubled, perhaps trippled.
I hope with all that many people gathering we didn't catch the virus...our flight back was also retarded for some two hours because of that...

But back to my reading at the swimming pool in the hotel in that fortnight. I read two English novels in English and two historical works that I bought in Dutch language because it was with a book token for my New Year present and they had it only available in Dutch and it would take to long to wait for an English version to be sent.

I think both titles will be interesting for nordmann and Temperance, as I know them.
I don't know yet in what thread to mention them.

Perhaps the first one in the power of myths thread, as it seems to be a central theme in the ascendence of Homo Sapiens.
Written by an Israeli historian and in my humble opinion a neutral stance, as I understand it taking distance from the myths, although in the meantime recognizing the power of the myths.

First:
Sapiens a brief history of mankind.
https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankind-Yuval-Noah-Harari/dp/0062316095
by Yuval Noah Harari.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuval_Noah_Harari
perhaps even adding to the thread about a comparison between dictatorship and democracy

Second:
And perhaps also in the same vein what is better for a seapower a dictatorship or an oligarchy: the second one:
Seapower States. Maritime Culture, Continental Empires and the Conflict That Made the Modern World.
https://www.amazon.com/Seapower-States-Maritime-Continental-Conflict/dp/0300230044
by Andrew Lambert
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Lambert
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/may/29/book-review-seapower-states-by-andrew-lambert/

PS: As I suppose MM has the same problem. The former daughter in law returning from one week with us in Tenerife, of course no reservations between her holidays, but after she returned some week ago, all reservations for the B&B canceled even in the foreseeable future and as such now no income anymore. Lucky her partner is also "technically unemployed" because his work is closed because of the virus, but he earns money from the unemployement fund...

Kind regards, Paul.

Lady in retirement,

not seeing that much from you the last days, I was asking myself how do you coop with all the difficulties of nowadays in your "nederig stulpje" (they translate on the internet with: humble cottage?)?

I hope in your isolation, you have still access to the necessary food and drinks? Yes and also "médicaments"?

From MM, as I was nearly sure I could foresee, he is cooping well and already heard here on the board how he "fills" his hours with planting seeds and all that. But you, contrary to the "robust?" (robuste, robuust) MM, have perhaps more difficulties than him. Him there in the South of France near the Spanish  Catalunian border?

Kind regards to both from Paul.

I live in a 1930s semi-detached which was built as part of a system called 'ribbon development'.  Of course the field at the back of the ribbon has been built on now for many years.  Of itself the house is not so bad, Paul, it's just that it needs a heck of a lot of work done on it and I can only afford to have the work done incrementally.

I've had a few people ring or email to see if I needed help and have replied I'm okay at present but I'll bear their offer in mind in case things change.  I keep saying I'll curtail my time spent on the internet except for essential things.  I was going to do some shopping in the town centre yesterday but one lady I met said there were crowds waiting to go into the supermarkets.  I went to a fairly new Co-op which I had been told was well stocked instead (it was but not with gluten-free things).  Anyway, today I went to church and there was a printed note on the door saying that priests in the diocese will continue to say masses but not to the public (in the present exceptional circumstances).  I went to Tesco's supermarket while I was in town - they are saying only one toilet roll (or packet of toilet rolls) per family unit now.  They still didn't have any loo rolls in stock though.  Someone said it's possible that the loo rolls I've ordered off Ebay may be part of someone else's over purchase but what can I do - I need the said items.  Soup was also being rationed to two cans so I bought two cans of gluten free soup.  If I can get some gluten-free flour and use some vegetables I could probably make my own soup.  I know a lady who has been making her own sanitiser for years using vodka (which she bought a long time ago) as the alcoholic ingredient so I bought some gin which was the 'plonk' price range of gin (is gin ever 'plonk' as in the sense of cheap or is that only wine?)  So I can hopefully have a go at making some hand sanitiser and if I feel things are getting to me have a drink of gin and tonic.

LadyinRetirement wrote:

I know a lady who has been making her own sanitiser for years using vodka (which she bought a long time ago) as the alcoholic ingredient so I bought some gin which was the 'plonk' price range of gin ....

Quelle horreur - ça c'est une sacrilège! Especially as apparently the supermarkets are all now running out of booze since the pubs and bars are closing.

LadyinRetirement wrote:

So I can hopefully have a go at making some hand sanitiser and if I feel things are getting to me have a drink of gin and tonic.

Ordinary soap is apparently better than hand sanitiser ( The Guardian - how soap kills coronavirus ) so you may as well just drink the gin anyway. And apparently video-conferencing cocktail hour is suddenly now a thing - we could consider that for the Tumbleweed Suite. Although on second thoughts maybe not. As I'm in isolation with no guests or visitors I'm just dressed in some tatty old tracksuit bottoms and a scruffy fleece  ... and I haven't shaved for several days.

Edit : crossed posts with Paul but will send anyway

LiR,

thanks for your update. The grandson said to me that all "hand gels?" as they have "tensio-actif" (making the water without less surface tension) stuff in them, they destroy the cell wall of the germs. And also the old fashioned piece of soap are well, while you have additionally the caustic component. And he can know it because he has a Phd in human biochemicals...
Wash during twenty seconds and thoroughly...I saw how to do it on BBC world and I guess it is still there...

I am glad LiR you are well. Take care of you.

Kind regards from Paul.

I went into town today (though I'm trying to self-isolate or at least socially distance myself).  I had hoped the item that was too large to go through my letter box on Saturday might be the loo rolls but when I got to the Post Office collection depot it was the bird food I'd ordered for the garden birds.  Someone told me there were some loo rolls in Poundland - no luck - though I was able to buy some other household staples there.  As there is a general dearth of disinfectant I bought some baby wipes pro-temp.  I did buy the pine disinfectant on Saturday but it is very strong and I think only for putting down the lavatory and sinks.  Otherwise I have some stuff at home now so should be able to keep going for the next few days at least.

LadyinRetirement wrote:

I went into town today (though I'm trying to self-isolate or at least socially distance myself).  I had hoped the item that was too large to go through my letter box on Saturday might be the loo rolls but when I got to the Post Office collection depot it was the bird food I'd ordered for the garden birds.  Someone told me there were some loo rolls in Poundland - no luck - though I was able to buy some other household staples there.  As there is a general dearth of disinfectant I bought some baby wipes pro-temp.  I did buy the pine disinfectant on Saturday but it is very strong and I think only for putting down the lavatory and sinks.  Otherwise I have some stuff at home now so should be able to keep going for the next few days at least.

 
LiR,

I am seriously thinking about what MM said about the Indian "habitudes". Instead of loo paper, some fabric (as in the time: for the women's period) and then in the sink of the garage rinse it and clean it with soap or with washing powder. I have some square meters of rag to spend.

Hmm, just an idea...

Kind regards from Paul.

Some old time suggestions:

What did people use before toilet paper

from Business Insider website:
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has some advice for Americans facing shortages in bath tissue: use a corn cob (sans corn) instead.

"Those of us from rural south know how to handle toilet paper shortage," Huckabee, a longtime ally of President Donald Trump, tweeted. "Eat more corn on the cob! The corn isn't important, but the cobs are free and work great! (Just don't flush them!) You're welcome!"

No doubt we'll all manage somehow - a case of having to really.  I looked on Ebay to see if there was any Dettol* available and someone was charging £29 for a bottle - admittedly a large one.  I'm not indulging that sort of greed.

*A brand of household disinfectant used in the UK.

Addendum: In the interests of fairness I should mention that neighbours/people I know have asked if I need any assistance regarding getting groceris at present.  I've said I'm okay at the moment but will let them know if things change.  So there are people who are being very decent in these present unusual times.

If I can find a site that streams it I might watch the old film 'Kind Hearts and Coronets' again.  I've heard of two conflicting sources - one that it was based on Roy Horniman's 1907 work 'Israel Rank: The Autobiography of a Criminal' and another that it was based on 'Noblesse Oblige' but I can't find out who wrote 'Noblesse Oblige'.  If it (NO) is the book edited by Nancy Mitford it seems an impossible inspiration for a film that came out in 1949 but it could be a different 'Noblesse Oblige' I guess.  Does anyone have any idea?

The highlight of the day - we went out!
Went to the farm and bought 1 bale hay, 1 bale straw, 25 kgs rabbit food!
Life in the fast lane, eh?

Also watched the man across the road drive up in his SUV, with 2 largish barrels in the back, one for him, one for the chap next door.

Next treat - mowing the front lawn!

Agree the "Mitford" book - unless a reannual - published 1956 can't really be the sourse for K H & C

LadyinRetirement wrote:

If I can find a site that streams it I might watch the old film 'Kind Hearts and Coronets' again.  I've heard of two conflicting sources - one that it was based on Roy Horniman's 1907 work 'Israel Rank: The Autobiography of a Criminal' and another that it was based on 'Noblesse Oblige' but I can't find out who wrote 'Noblesse Oblige'.  If it (NO) is the book edited by Nancy Mitford it seems an impossible inspiration for a film that came out in 1949 but it could be a different 'Noblesse Oblige' I guess.  Does anyone have any idea?

Well, despite the fact I normally require confirmation for anything more contentious than the date as printed in the press, this does look respectable. https://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2009/nov/12/kind-hearts-and-coronets

Life is hectic here. I saw a cat cross the road.

Priscilla wrote:

Life is hectic here. I saw a cat cross the road.

Did you ask it why? Was it pursuing the chicken?

Thanks for the answer, Gilgamesh.  I didn't mention in my earlier post that the Nancy Mitford Noblesse Oblige came out in 1956 - so a bit late for a 1949 film (unless there had been extracts from the book printed as a serial/series of course).

I reckon the crossing cat was on a failed suicide bid. Not much else to do around here but speculate about mental stability of anything.

From an earlier discussion on this thread, here's what the flood tablet says (in the words of Utnapishtim the Faraway).
When a seventh day arrived
I sent forth a dove and released it.
The dove went off, but came back to me;
no perch was visible so it circled back to me.
I sent forth a swallow and released it.
The swallow went off, but came back to me;
no perch was visible so it circled back to me.
I sent forth a raven and released it.
The raven went off, and saw the waters slither back.
It eats, it scratches, it bobs, but does not circle back to me.

Not hanging about today on this website because I have had some bad news - I've learned that a lady from the group of us from U3A that periodically meet for a Sunday meal has died suddenly.  No one has said it was the coronavirus just that it was a short illness.  She was perhaps a friendly acquaintance to me rather than a very close friend but she was a lovely lady and the news has left me extremely saddened.  My neighbour told me there have in fact been some fatalities from Covid-19 in my hometown.  I thought we'd escaped it thus far but the powers-that-be just haven't been publicising it.  It just shows this matter has to be taken seriously though I daresay on that account I am preaching to the converted on this site.  Look after yourselves everyone.

LadyinRetirement wrote:

Not hanging about today on this website because I have had some bad news - I've learned that a lady from the group of us from U3A that periodically meet for a Sunday meal has died suddenly.  No one has said it was the coronavirus just that it was a short illness.  She was perhaps a friendly acquaintance to me rather than a very close friend but she was a lovely lady and the news has left me extremely saddened.  My neighbour told me there have in fact been some fatalities from Covid-19 in my hometown.  I thought we'd escaped it thus far but the powers-that-be just haven't been publicising it.  It just shows this matter has to be taken seriously though I daresay on that account I am preaching to the converted on this site.  Look after yourselves everyone.

Sad news for you, LiR. Keep care.

Regards from Paul.

My sympathies too, LiR, for the loss of your friend.

Speculation that her illness may be related to Covid-19, or that the "powers-that-be" are deliberately misleading people regarding fatality statistics in your region, are probably natural suspicions in a society in which both reliable guidance as well as reliable information on the nature of the disease have - compared to many other European countries - been problematically inadequate, to say the least. However there is indeed one important aspect to the current epidemic which all of us over a certain age (and statistically therefore more vulnerable than the morbidity mean) must appreciate and take on board immediately, and which your friend's sad demise may in fact actually illustrate.

While we are slowly (all too slowly) building a reliable assessment of this infection's true vectors of transmission, morbidity and fatality rates, what we can right now analyse and make confident predictions about are the very real and very quantifiable effect that responding to this infection is having on utilisation of health care resources. Simply put, the more of a dwindling resource (human, chemical and mechanical) that is committed to treating the huge upsurge in cases directly related to this viral infection the less is available for what, in normal circumstances, are the common or likely morbidity and mortality factors affecting everyone, and especially those of us of a certain age.

It will be a long time before the true statistical impact this virus will have had on such vulnerable groups becomes available, if ever. Fatality rates directly related to Covid-19 infection are relatively easy to adduce, and this is being done, but the indirect and potentially fatal effect of a reduced or withdrawn healthcare system for people suffering from unrelated illnesses and conditions is something that will probably never be meaningfully calculated at all, and given how much such a calculation will vary from region to region, probably never truly can be either.

So from this point on my advice is to maintain as realistic a grasp on what is actually happening as you can. Speculate by all means regarding individuals' cause of death, and even about whether the "powers-that-be" issue reliable information (both are valid speculations), but in your own interests take it as fact that what your friend's death most likely illustrates in the current epidemic is that we are all right now more vulnerable than ever, not just to a particular virus but to a rather fundamental and not so temporary reduction in the levels of healthcare that can be provided. Moreover, that in the UK (as in several other countries who could not, or chose not to, take appropriate measures soon enough) you as a society are still at the point where this reduction in healthcare - unless some absolutely extraordinary event occurs - is on course to grow as exponentially as the virus contagion itself.

We all share a fear of being ill, and the steps to mitigate the chances of being infected by this particular virus are at this point rather clear. However don't forget that we all now must also try to avoid exposing ourselves more than we must to any risk of illness or physical injury that would normally involve reliance on a public health system to resolve. Further, while in relative isolation, we must also be aware of our mental well being, knowing that stability and succour we might normally have received through more gregarious social interaction will be in very short supply for a while.

So stay safe, and stay well.

nordmann, thank you very much for this thought provoking message.

I follow on daily basis:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
Corona global cases and deaths

What I think to see for countries that have started the same moment with counter-measuremensts, although I agree there are other factors too from 1 March on, that for instance Germany 50,871 cases 351 deaths...France 32,964 cases 2378 deaths...
The grandson says that that is perhaps due to the better organized healthcare system...

Also Netherlands 8603 cases 546 deaths Belgium 7284 cases 289 deathc (ratio of population 1.5 to 1.)
Is that due to the fact that they later started with the lock down and less rigid than Belgium?

And then you have Bolsonaro, even compared with Trump...
https://time.com/5810902/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-governors-coronavirus/

Kind regards, Paul.

No two countries' "lock downs" are exactly the same. So far in Norway, for example, we are into a third week of what were originally rather startling and sudden changes, but which for the most part only needed to be stated once and then which almost everyone just adopted, more or less. There has been no need for much by way of official threat to get people to conform, and as far as I can see people have also even managed to "fine tune" the rules so as to keep the spirit and effectivenss of the advice while allowing a slight measure of personal freedom more than in other places. If you compare this to the UK at the moment then it's like chalk and cheese. In the UK media-reported public responses have included open "defiance" as well as some extreme obsessing about how the "two metre rule" or the "single jog a day rule" etc is to be applied "by them". We had none of that here - common sense prevailed, as well as some really impressive spontaneous social organization initiatives that have really taken the edge off a lot of the privations and none of which were even suggested by the authorities.

The timing of the crack-down on social mobility has been a crucial factor, and even more crucial given that three weeks ago no government in Europe had any reliable figures to go on regarding communal transmission rates within their borders. Italy can be totally forgiven for getting it so wrong, being the first to develop an epicentre in their society before anyone else had even properly acknowledged the mechanics of this. Spain and France also made terrible mistakes that they could have avoided, and I'm sure this is where most countries in Europe share common faults. The only thing that saved some from worse effects while condemning others to terrible experiences was the actual extent, a few weeks ago, to which each may or may not have ended up through sheer bad luck or naive administration in having developed epicentric transmission points demographically. The French local elections, for example, should never have gone ahead. Spanish football continued beyond a point where the effect was not only known but measurable. Urban public transport systems operated in several countries with little or no safeguard measures counteracting their uniquely dangerous role as a transmission vector. The list goes on.

And then there are the countries like the USA and, unfortunately for the bulk of people on this board, the UK. Both of these, while others were grappling quickly with realising and implementing the minimum measures required, were actively down-playing the seriousness of the problem and even encouraging their citizens to ignore it. They lost about two weeks in the process and worse, because of the official line and the nature of their media sophistication, have played a role in promoting misinformation on a grand scale that itself is leading to deaths now. I have detected a fundamental change in the UK now on the part of general public perception of what we're up against, but really only in the last few days. Better late than never, I suppose, but for a so-called educated "first world" country the self-inflicted damage, most of which is yet to come, will be enormous - way worse than it ever needed to be and with very long term ramifications. After Brexit I suppose I shouldn't have been surprised, but I was and indeed still am when I see how much stupidity is persisting there even now in both public behaviour and official response. I sincerely hope when this thing is over that those responsible for placing profit over lives in the UK, and the list is already an impressive one, are punished, if not by the state (which itself is among the villains) then by the consumer/voter.

Germany has indeed shown two anomalies so far. One is that it indeed responded probably best of all when it came to putting a well prepared health service into immediate and effective use. Don't forget that redirection of funds and resources into that service in anticipation of this event started there as early as in January, well ahead of anyone else. The other is rather more worrying in that its effective response meant that its testing strategy and the data it is acquiring is more reliable than most other European countries, and this data is unfortunately pointing very much to a realisation that younger people are not so able to avoid Covid-19 and complications as had been originally assessed. This does not reflect on anything different about German physiology, just that their data at the moment is probably more pertinent than that coming from countries getting theirs more from patients at the point of presenting.

The Brazilian case is simply bizarre. This, as well as others like the USA and the UK, will probably finally seal the fate of overtly populist regimes as they recently manifested themselves once things get back to normal. But I am not so foolish as to think that populism itself has taken a hard knock. When global  economic depression becomes our new norm all the usual doors to such developments will have been flung wide open.

nordmann wrote:

 
 Further, while in relative isolation, we must also be aware of our mental well being, knowing that stability and succour we might normally have received through more gregarious social interaction will be in very short supply for a while.

 I'm fascinated to chart my own reaction to "relative isolation": I have not had contact with another human being - other than by text, phone or email - for nine days now. Waving and shouting across the lane at my neighbours is the nearest I've got to social interaction. Yet, so far, I seem to be OK. My only really bad moment - what I think Oliver Burkeman means in his excellent Guardian article (link below) when he refers to "annihilatory panic" (what a lovely expression) - was when my internet connection went down for a few minutes. That in itself was revealing of a dependency I am loathe to admit.

Coping With Radical Uncertainty

The opening paragraph - the comments made by C.S. Lewis - are spot on:


In 1939, in a sermon preached at Oxford University in the midst of a different global crisis, CS Lewis made a distinction that’s worth revisiting today. It wasn’t the case, he pointed out, that the outbreak of war had rendered human life suddenly fragile; rather, it was that people were suddenly realising it always had been. “The war creates no absolutely new situation,” Lewis said. “It simply aggravates the permanent human situation so that we can no longer ignore it. Human life has always been lived on the edge of a precipice… We are mistaken when we compare war with ‘normal life’. Life has never been normal.”

Crossed posts.

There was an interesting interview (iirc on Radio 4's "More or Less" a programme that focusses on statitics) where the interviewee suggested that what is known of fatalities shows that covid19 is resulting in roughly 12 months worth of fatalities, and no group is more or less affected, ie 12 months worth of the fatalities to be expected in that age group can be expected. Hence the number with "underlying problems" is high as their life expectancy was already reduced.


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btw - No country has had, or can have, an "epicentre" of a disease. The word refers only to the point on the surface of a body immediately above the site of an earthquake.
<* Pedant mode OFF>

Green George wrote:

T
<* Pedant mode ON>
btw - No country has had, or can have, an "epicentre" of a disease. The word refers only to the point on the surface of a body immediately above the site of an earthquake.
<* Pedant mode OFF>

In epidemiology it is used to indicate transmission nodes, in other words geographical points from which the vectors radiate. I realise where it has been borrowed from, but it has been used in that sense now for decades, especially in the case of highly virulent disease. I am not sure about the statistician's summary either - we'll be in a better position to assess it when all the deaths have occurred. At the moment the data is fragmentary and inconsistent in how it has been gathered.

Temp, Lewis was correct of course. The tragedy is when normality (ethereal or illusional as the concept may be) could have been maintained for the great majority, but through nothing more evil than stupidity, was not.

nordmann, thank you very much again for your in depth analysis. And in a well constructed message...I learned a lot from it. A bit envious of you, although I know I will never have the intellectual baggage you have. Nor the splendid use of the English language. I can only do my best ...

Kind regards, Paul.