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 Afghanistan 1979 world change

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PaulRyckier
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PostSubject: Afghanistan 1979 world change   Wed 04 Jul 2018, 22:42

As Tim is on journey, perhaps Dirk and others will be interested.
How the American intervention in the Afghan-Russian war changed the later history of the world...
Give first the documentary to make later my comments.

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PostSubject: Re: Afghanistan 1979 world change   Thu 05 Jul 2018, 22:37

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Tim of Aclea
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PostSubject: Re: Afghanistan 1979 world change   Wed 18 Jul 2018, 16:43

Hi Paul

I wrote this some yeara ago as part of a series on the fall of the Soviet Empire, it was largely based on a book about its fall

regards

Tim

On 27th April 1978 a group Afghan officers, all members of the Communist party, took power in Afghanistan in a coup and proclaimed a 'democratic republic'.  Moscow was not behind the coup, in fact they had done their best to dissuade the plotters.  However, one the coup happened Moscow then supported the new communist government with a contingent of advisers.  The government introduced a number of reforms such as equality for women that the west would have supported but which were opposed in this deeply conservative Islamic country.  Mullahs opposed the government and called for a Jihad against it and the Mujahideen (Army of God) started a guerrilla war against the government which soon called for Soviet assistance.  The USSR was, however, totally opposed to sending troops.
However, by 1979 a number of events caused the USSR to change its mind and intervene.  The first was the Islamic revolution in Iran, the USSR had fully expected the USA to prop up the Shah and were shocked when they failed to do so.  The USSR feared that the ideas of an Islamic republic would spread into their own predominately Islamic southern republics.  Secondly the Afghan leader Taraki was murdered by a fellow officer Amin who considered that he could run the country better.  The USSR did not trust Amin.  Lastly the NATO decision to deploy cruise and Pershing missiles left the USSR feeling they had nothing to lose by intervening.
The plan was for a short and swift intervention, kill Amin put in a more complaint leader and get out in a few weeks.  Brezhnev was still, in theory, the Soviet leader and had to OK the invasion.  He was now so ill that he could only think straight for about 1 hour a day but even he was very worried about this invasion.  The two top Red Army generals (both WW2 veterans) charged with preparing the plans for invasion both, at great risk to their careers, stated that they thought the invasion would end in disaster for the USSR, but they were told to obey orders and the invasion went ahead.
On Christmas Day 1979 the Red Army invaded.  The operation to take Amin was botched and he was only killed after a bloody shootout.  The Red Army did not come out in a few weeks and found themselves bogged down in a bloody war with the USA under Reagan pouring arms into the Mujahideen.  The USA's very successful policy was to tie down the Red Army so making it more difficult for it to intervene elsewhere.
In 1981, with no end in site to the Afghan war, a junior member of the Politburo, Michael Gorbachev, described it as 'our bleeding wound.'
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PostSubject: Re: Afghanistan 1979 world change   Wed 18 Jul 2018, 22:44

@Tim of Aclea wrote:
Hi Paul

I wrote this some yeara ago as part of a series on the fall of the Soviet Empire, it was largely based on a book about its fall

regards

Tim

On 27th April 1978 a group Afghan officers, all members of the Communist party, took power in Afghanistan in a coup and proclaimed a 'democratic republic'.  Moscow was not behind the coup, in fact they had done their best to dissuade the plotters.  However, one the coup happened Moscow then supported the new communist government with a contingent of advisers.  The government introduced a number of reforms such as equality for women that the west would have supported but which were opposed in this deeply conservative Islamic country.  Mullahs opposed the government and called for a Jihad against it and the Mujahideen (Army of God) started a guerrilla war against the government which soon called for Soviet assistance.  The USSR was, however, totally opposed to sending troops.
However, by 1979 a number of events caused the USSR to change its mind and intervene.  The first was the Islamic revolution in Iran, the USSR had fully expected the USA to prop up the Shah and were shocked when they failed to do so.  The USSR feared that the ideas of an Islamic republic would spread into their own predominately Islamic southern republics.  Secondly the Afghan leader Taraki was murdered by a fellow officer Amin who considered that he could run the country better.  The USSR did not trust Amin.  Lastly the NATO decision to deploy cruise and Pershing missiles left the USSR feeling they had nothing to lose by intervening.
The plan was for a short and swift intervention, kill Amin put in a more complaint leader and get out in a few weeks.  Brezhnev was still, in theory, the Soviet leader and had to OK the invasion.  He was now so ill that he could only think straight for about 1 hour a day but even he was very worried about this invasion.  The two top Red Army generals (both WW2 veterans) charged with preparing the plans for invasion both, at great risk to their careers, stated that they thought the invasion would end in disaster for the USSR, but they were told to obey orders and the invasion went ahead.
On Christmas Day 1979 the Red Army invaded.  The operation to take Amin was botched and he was only killed after a bloody shootout.  The Red Army did not come out in a few weeks and found themselves bogged down in a bloody war with the USA under Reagan pouring arms into the Mujahideen.  The USA's very successful policy was to tie down the Red Army so making it more difficult for it to intervene elsewhere.
In 1981, with no end in site to the Afghan war, a junior member of the Politburo, Michael Gorbachev, described it as 'our bleeding wound.'


Tim,

thank you very much for your survey, which contained data that I didn't knew about as the two Russian generals...

As I understood the documentary, I waded again through it, there was a party in the US administration, who wanted to increase that much the cost of the war for the SSSR, that it was bleeding white and not be able to remain. Brzezinski? In the documentary 26th minute: aid started with 10 million, then 20 and ever growing during the years, also aid from Saudi Arabia. American providing the Stinger missiles turning point...44 minute: Reagan administration, even with the peace aiming Gorbachev, wanted to destroy the SSSR...the end of the film suggests the following, as the title:  the changing of the world...
The US by supporting the most radical elements of the jihad, among them Bin Laden, was the breeding ground for the later Taliban, Al Qaida and the later IS and indeed the US started the fall of Gorbachev and the SSSR...but the effect is now a Putin and an unwinning war in that same Afghanistan, this time, as a kind of a joke, for the US led coalition...and not to forget the twin towers...

But in the wiki, they are a bit putting all this in question, due to several opinions of historians...

I want to find out, the differences of what is said in the documentary and in the wiki...

Kind regards from Paul.
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PaulRyckier
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PostSubject: Re: Afghanistan 1979 world change   Fri 20 Jul 2018, 23:24

Tim,

the whole eveing reading about the question that I made yesterday.

To what extent were the Americans responsable for the later Taliban, the Jihad and Isis, by supporting the radical elements among the
mujahadeen in the Soviet-Afghan war? A bit the theme of the documentary in my original post...
https://goo.gl/xKBrtg
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2779820
Amercan Strategy in the Soviet-Afghan War
By Michael Shearer from Maryland university

Is that the one from the article?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2366862
Is that the same person?
https://www.wayup.com/profile/Michael-Shearer-d78e6b43a7/
From that article:
480 milliard dollar in 1986
650 milliard dollar in 1987
350 milliard dollar in 1988

And further:
https://www.us-foreign-policy-perspective.org/index.php?id=52
https://www.us-foreign-policy-perspective.org/index.php?id=322

And further:
War without End:The rise of islamist Terrorism and Global Response
https://www.amazon.com/War-without-End-Islamist-Terrorism/dp/0415288010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dilip_Hiro


And another source, in my opinion more apologizing for the American policy...why they couldn't do otherwise from geopolitics Wink ...and perhaps they have a point that the Taliban rised not directly! from the American aid to the mujahadeen...
And new to me was the Chinese role in the American aid...

Tomorrow more comments...

Kind regards from Paul.
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Tim of Aclea
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PostSubject: Re: Afghanistan 1979 world change   Thu 26 Jul 2018, 07:50

Hi Paul

sorry for the delay in responding but I have been struggling through a tricky essay on Medieval Islamic medicine not helped by having to answer a very badly thought out question.  

Sorry also that no one else seems to have contributed to this topic.

As I think you are aware I have been posting on the jiglu site concerning Afghanistan but that was specifically on the experience of the British army in Helmand province which was, as often seemed to happen to the British army in Afghanistan, a bit of a disaster.  

I am afraid that I cannot say that I have actually studied the modern history of Afghanistan in any detail which of necessity limits my ability to comment.  Regarding the Soviet war, I gather that Gorbachev, when he became leader of the USSR did send a general to report on the war and general advised that it was unwinnable but that Gorbachev delayed taking action and pulling the Red Army out of there.

regards

Tim
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PostSubject: Re: Afghanistan 1979 world change   Thu 26 Jul 2018, 21:30

@Tim of Aclea wrote:
Hi Paul

sorry for the delay in responding but I have been struggling through a tricky essay on Medieval Islamic medicine not helped by having to answer a very badly thought out question.  

Sorry also that no one else seems to have contributed to this topic.

As I think you are aware I have been posting on the jiglu site concerning Afghanistan but that was specifically on the experience of the British army in Helmand province which was, as often seemed to happen to the British army in Afghanistan, a bit of a disaster.  

I am afraid that I cannot say that I have actually studied the modern history of Afghanistan in any detail which of necessity limits my ability to comment.  Regarding the Soviet war, I gather that Gorbachev, when he became leader of the USSR did send a general to report on the war and general advised that it was unwinnable but that Gorbachev delayed taking action and pulling the Red Army out of there.

regards

Tim

Tim,

thank you very much for your honest answer. Even I, when wading trough all the source material and trying to separate fake stories from real ones, and at the same time looking to the sources of the articles, wasn't able to answer my questions. But as with any controversial story there is a lot of discussion...a bit as the evergreen: Did Roosevelt knew about Pearl Harbor?...
And yes I suppose in the near future the same will happen with the Syrian Civil War...as BTW the same with the Yugoslavian Civil War...

Kind regards from Paul and thanks again for your honest answer.
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