What you say is (mostl) true, but while the German state had initially proved well-able to feed its native German population with minimal rationing, by 1943 it was increasingly clear that it would be unable to do so long-term and that the Reich's store cupboards were already starting to run low. (But I'll readily conceed that hindsight is often, though not always, infallible).
As early as the onset of winter in late 1942 - with Operation Barbarsossa at a standstill especially at Stalingrad, and with the German Army facing the bitter reality of a long Russian winter - a nation-wide appeal (spear-headed by Goebbels, I think) went out for donations of winter clothing. Such was the urgency this was something that could not be hidden from those on the 'home front' as it was their own winter clothes that they were being asked to give up, and in the depths of winter too. German newsreels of the time - such as shown in the 1973 'World at War' TV documentary series - tended to make light of it all by showing soldiers merrily playing in the snow dressed in donated tweed jackets and plus-fours, fancy knitted cardigans (originally for children but now too small for them) and long fur coats (the sort of thing last worn by a wealthy dowager to the opera). Despite all the propaganda it should have been clear - at least to any that cared to look closer and dared question - that if even the all-powerful German Army could not be adequately supplied with basic winter clothing, then what hope for the rest of the population
Moreover in late 1942, with the invasion of the USSR stalled at least until summer 1943 at the very earliest, it should have been clear to the home population that Germany's expectations of obtaining huge amounts of grain and other food staples from the Ukraine and Russia were unlikely ever to be met. Similaly any hopes that German-occupied Poland would soon be providing abundant agricultural produce to the fatherland would be dashed in 1943. Following that year's a poor harvest (mostly a direct consequence of the war) occupied Poland was itself already struggling to feed and house all the Eastern Germans who were now fleeing westwards into Poland, having been displaced by the advancing Soviet army. This was certainly not how Hitler had promised it would be in 'Mein Kampf'.
The Nazis seem to have persuaded the German people (der Volksdeutsche, to use Hitler's oft-used term) to keep going ... not through any promises or even hopes of jam tomorrow, but simply through being given jam today and with the reckless promise that when tomorrow did arrive, the situation would somehow have sorted itself out. One can compare that to Britain, where as early as May 1940 Churchill, then newly Prime Minister, said he was only able to offer the people, "blood, toil, tears, and sweat".
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